Independent Evaluation of the Relevance and Effectiveness of the Green Climate Fund Investments in the African States

The GCF was established by 194 governments in 2010 under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to contribute to the global response to climate change. The GCF’s mandate is to limit or reduce greenhouse gas emissions in developing countries, and to help vulnerable societies adapt to the unavoidable impacts of climate change. The GCF’s Governing Instrument identifies Least Developed Countries (LDCs), Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and African States as particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The Independent Evaluation of the Relevance and Effectiveness of the Green Climate Fund’s Investments in the African States formed part of a broader effort of the GCF’s Independent Evaluation Unit (IEU) to evaluate the relevance and effectiveness of interventions in these vulnerable states. The evaluation built on previous IEU evaluations, including but not limited to the Independent Evaluation of the Relevance and Effectiveness of the GCF's Investments in SIDS (2020) and the Independent Evaluation of the Relevance and Effectiveness of the GCF’s Investments in the LDCs (2022). 

This evaluation assessed whether and the extent to which GCF approaches and investments were effective in contributing to the objectives of the UNFCCC and promote a paradigm shift towards low-emission and climate-resilient development pathways. It also considered effectiveness and efficiency in reducing the vulnerability of local communities and livelihoods to the effects of climate change, and whether positive impacts are likely to be sustained. The evaluation was undertaken using both a utilization-focused and highly participatory approach. The evaluation was also approached as a TBE, coupled with contribution analysis methodology and informed by a realist evaluation approach. As such, the evaluation notably included the construction of a GCF ToC, to describe its activities and outcome pathways (i.e., its results chains) as related to African States specifically. The evaluation team adopted a mixed-method approach for this mandate, which included document review (including relevant GCF documents, a synthesis of findings from previous evaluations, and a literature review on climate financing in Africa), portfolio analysis of GCF’s intervention in Africa as well as those from other funds (including GEF, Climate Investment Funds [CIF] and AF), a 3CO – Complementary, Coherence and Cooperation – Analysis, a survey for Civil Society Organizations (CSOs), and stakeholder interviews with internal and external individuals. The evaluation team also undertook five case studies, including three thematic case studies on great green wall countries, on FCVs in Africa and on countries with no single country funded project, as well as two country case studies in Kenya and South Africa.